IMF看好全球經濟前景
IMF upbeat about global outlook
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家拉古拉姆?拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的觀點可以概括為兩個方面：一方面慶祝世界經濟4年來的出色表現，另一方面警告大好時光可能會慘淡收場。
A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears: that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist.
國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行(World Bank)的年會本週末將在新加坡召開。在此之前，拉詹先生在倫敦接受了《金融時報》採訪並在本報今天的報紙上撰文。他的觀點表明，國際貨幣基金組織對世界經濟的基本狀況及其前景比先前更為樂觀。
Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Bank’s annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in today’s newspaper, Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.
國際貨幣基金組織透露了對經濟所作的部分預測(《金融時報》上週發表了這些內容)，它們顯示，該組織預計2006年全球經濟增長為5.1%，而相比之下，該組織於今年4月所作的上一次預測為4.8%。
A leak of the fund’s economic forecasts, published in the FT last week, showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006, compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.
國際貨幣基金組織的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)將於今天發表，屆時有關上述數據和拉詹想法的真實性將得到證實。該基金組織預計，2007年，發達國家的經濟增長將減速，但隨着新興國家的經濟蓬勃發展，世界經濟仍將增長4.9%。
These figures and Mr Rajan’s thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead, the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.
拉詹先生在接受《金融時報》採訪時表達了一種新的憂慮，即隨着新的'政策改革陷入停滯，一度支撐了世界經濟的生產率增長可能會逐漸消失。
A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times, was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.
“我目前看到的情況，是政策改革的緊迫性還相當低，”他表示。
“What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted,” he says.
一種日益高漲的預測是，全球經濟明年將出現衰退。對此拉詹並不認同。“風險是雙方面的，”他表示。通脹和美國經濟放緩是美國的風險。“關鍵問題是，經濟放緩是否足以壓制通脹壓力，或是否需要進一步升息。”
Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. “The risks are two-sided,” he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. “The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises.”
但在拉詹看來，最主要的問題仍是不斷擴大的全球貿易失衡。它導致美國揹負鉅額貿易逆差，而中國、石油出口國和日本則相應獲得了大量盈餘。
But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China, oil exporters and Japan.
過去18個月中，國際貨幣資金組織曾警告説，無序解決這些失衡，會使美元大幅貶值、全球利率大幅上升和全球經濟衰退，從而增加金融市場紊亂和保護主義再度抬頭的風險。
For the past 18 months, the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances, involving a slump in the US dollar, much higher global interest rates and a global recession, risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.
該組織呼籲，美國應減少預算赤字，歐洲和日本應加快內部經濟改革，中國要推動國內消費並允許人民幣進一步升值，其餘亞洲國家應加大投資力度，以及“亞洲新興經濟體增加匯率彈性”，即委婉地敦促中國讓人民幣進一步升值。
It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit, Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms, China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi, and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and “greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia”, a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.
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